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摘 要 ：在冷水机组的实际运行中，其性能系数COP（coefficient of performance）的高低与负荷率PLR（part load ratio）有关，同时还与其它一些因素有关，所以COP、PLR以及其它影响因素构成了一个灰色系统。本文应用灰色理论预测不同的PRL下，冷水机组对应的COP值，并通过仿真实验平台做实验检验其预测精度，这为制冷系统的优化控制提供了可靠的不同PLR下的COP值。 关键词 ：灰色理论 制冷机组 性能系数 部分负荷率 Basing The Gray Theory To Predict The Performance Of Chiller Under Part Load Jian Yan, Zhimin Du, Xuebin Yang, Bo Fan, Yibo guo, Xinqiao Jin School of mechanical engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China Abstract : During the chiller operation, its coefficient of performance (COP) is affected by many factors such as part load ratio (PLR), and many other factors. There are complex and indeterminable relationship between the COP and the PLR and the other factors, therefore they form a grey system. Basing on gray theory, the COP is predicted under different PLR, and the results of the prediction are validated by simulation platform. This study can supply the credible prediction of COP under different PLR to optimize control of the central air-conditioning system. Key words: Gray theory Chillers Coefficient of performance Part load ratio 参考文献 [1] 晋欣桥. 变风量空调系统的仿真及其实时优化控制研究：[D].上海：上海交通大学制冷研究所，2000. [2] Yiqiang Jiang. Applying grey forecasting to predicting the operating energy performance of air cooled water chillers. International Journal of Refrigeration. 27 (2004) 385392. [3] Thananchai Leephakpreeda. Grey prediction on indoor comfort temperature for HVAC systems. Expert Systems with Applications. 34 (2008) 22842289. [4] 邓聚龙.灰色理论基础[ M] .武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002.2. [5] 邓聚龙.灰预测与灰决策[ M] .武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002.9.