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摘 要 ：采用Parzen窗估计概率方法分析了某航站楼全年负荷变化情况以及全年工况下冷负荷概率密度分布，基于冷负荷概率密度分布提出了三种机组启停优化模式，并对三种机组启停优化模式下空调系统能耗进行了比较。在此基础上以冷水机组能耗为优化目标建立优化目标函数，对冷水机组的启停台数以及各个机组的部分负荷率进行优化，结果显示该优化控制策略相对于原控制策略能够有效地减少空调系统运行能耗。 关键词： Parzen窗估计概率方法 负荷率 优化控制策略 Study on Optimal Chillers Control Strategies Based on Parzen Window Density Estimation Method Bo Fan Zhimin Du Xuebin Yang Jian Yan Chen Yang Xinqiao Jin School of Mechanical Eng.,Shanghai Jiaotong Univ., Shanghai 200240,China Abstract ：Parzen window density estimation method is employed to analyze variation tendency of the building cooling load and annual distribution of cooling load ratio. Based on probability density distribution profile, three kinds of the optimal on-off control mode for chillers is presented and compared. In according to compared results, new optimal control strategy for chillers is presented. Minimum energy consumption of chillers is selected as the objective function of the optimization problem. Operating number and part load ratio of chillers are optimized. Simulation results show that this optimal control strategy can save more energy consumption than the original control strategy. Keyword : Parzen window density estimation cooling load ratio optimal control strategy