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摘要 基于维护时收集的数据，以生存分析方法构建了冷水主机的生存曲线，识别了故障事件间隔时间的概率模型，并估计了模型参数的极大似然估计量。利用统计假设检验法比较了2台冷水主机生存率的差异显著性，藉以推断这2台冷水主机维护质量的差异。利用随机过程更新理论确立了设备故障事件发生的计数过程及累积维修成本随机过程的统计特性，并建立了期望累积维修成本与使用时间的关系。结果显示，故障事件间隔时间的概率模型近似指数分布，故障事件发生次数随时间增加的计数过程可以泊松过程模拟。 关键词 物业管理 冷水主机 生存分析 维护成本 Evaluation of maintenance quality and costs of water chillers in property management buildings By Lin Jenghsiang, Lin Shyhjiunn, Chen Jiannmou and Hsiao Kuanming Abstract Based on practically collected data, constructs the survival curves of the water chillers by survival analysis method, identifies the probability model of interval time between two sequential breakdown events for the water chillers and estimates the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the parameters of the model. By means of statistic hypothesis testing, compares discrepancy significance of survival rates in order to judge the discrepancy of maintenance quality between two chillers. Based on the theory of random renewal processes, detects the statistical characteristics of the counting process of breakdown events and the cumulative repair cost process. Constructs the relation between the expected cumulative cost and time. The results show that the interval time follows approximately exponential distribution, and the counting process of breakdown events can be simulated as a Poisson process. Keywords property management, water chiller, survival analysis, maintenance cost