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摘要 针对热网元件的老化问题，提出了应用最大熵原理研究热网元件故障概率分布的方法。该方法是在保证样本的统计特性条件下，通过调整概率密度函数使熵达到最大，从而得到与样本数据偏差最小的热网元件故障概率分布。编制了实用计算程序，分别对一组服从指数分布的数据和热网元件故障统计数据进行了数值模拟，结果表明采用该方法计算得到的函数与理论函数及样本统计结果吻合，从而验证了该方法的有效性和实用性，为热网可靠性计算提供了基础资料。 关键词 热网 最大熵原理 故障概率分布 可靠性 Study of failure probability distribution of components in heat supply network based on maximum entropy principle By Wang Xiaoxia, Zou Pinghua and Zhao Lihua Abstract To treat the component aging problem in heat supply network, puts forward the method of using maximum entropy principle to study the failure probability distribution of the components, which makes the entropy reach maximum by adjusting the probability density function to obtain the failure probability distribution of components with minimum deviation from sample data on the condition of guaranteeing statistics characteristics of samples remaining unchanged. Develops the practical calculation program and numerically simulates a group of data following exponential distribution and failure statistical data of the components separately. The results show that the function obtained by this method is consistent with the theoretical function and sample statistical result, verifying the validity and practicability of the method and providing basic data for reliability calculation of heat supply network. Keywords heat supply network, maximum entropy principle, failure probability distribution, reliability